Research

Fourth quarter earnings season is nearly complete, and it has been a good one. S&P 500 companies grew profits more than 18% year over year, according to FactSet data, with mega cap technology and financial companies doing most of the heavy lifting (about seven points of growth came from each). The Magnificent Seven grew earnings by an average of 37% and financials earnings jumped 50%.

The U.S. Treasury market is entering a significant transition period in 2025, facing both structural adjustments and all-too-familiar policy discussions. As the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) shift from a zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) coincides with a substantial $7.5 trillion refinancing cycle, markets are also preparing for another round of debt ceiling negotiations.

Stocks continued to climb the wall of worry last week and shrugged off tariff headlines, inflation volatility, and signs of a slowdown in retail spending.

Expected continued steady economic growth should enable corporate America to grow profits at or near a double digit pace in 2025.